Sunday, June 24, 2012

Intrigue in Egypt


Ouch. The Egyptian people have chosen the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Mohammed Morsi, as their new president. But are we actually seeing a "transition to democracy" in Egypt? Well...

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) had recently suspended the powers of the presidency to control the military and inserted broad powers for itself. The country's highest court had thrown out legislative election results and the new constitution. The SCAF was the true guiding hand in Egypt for the past year, so why did the Brotherhood candidate win over the man who seemed to be the natural fit for the military, Ahmed Safik?

Safik was a former prime minister for Hosni Mubarak. He was seen as the status quo, "old guard" candidate. The Brotherhood had been banned from political activities under Mubarak. So many questions come out of this: 

Does the Brotherhood have more influence in the military than most think? 
What type of constitution will come out of a Brotherhood-dominated legislature, assuming there is one (though it seems clear that's the path the people are headed down)?
What of relations with Israel and the United States, as well as the broader Middle East region (specifically Turkey, Syria and Iran)?
Will the fundamentalist Brotherhood be able to contain itself from onerous religious laws after the celebrations in Tahrir Square die down? 
Was there a deal cut between the Brotherhood and SCAF (obviously, yes)? How extensive was it (besides the military's suspension of basic democratic controls). Closely connected to this is: 
Was this result a fait accompli as the military and the Brotherhood negotiated "power sharing" roles? (In order to win the presidency, the Brotherhood had to agree to give up power over the military and the military would support Morsi).

Politics is politics wherever you go and politics is about power (getting it, holding it, maintaining it, expanding it, etc.). So all of the great chants about democracy and freedom will often be a mask to cover naked power grabs. If the Egyptian military is/was more concerned about power, than national security, then this result is not surprising. Same goes for the Brotherhood; give up some powers in the hopes of gaining others they may find more important (religious, social control). Heck, if the Brotherhood plays their cards right, they may be able to get the upper hand on the military over time. Come to think of it, both sides are probably thinking the same thing (make the deal, wait out the clock, maneuver incessantly and take total control). 

The thought of a large and powerful military, working along side a known religious fundamentalist group in a (soon-to-be formerly) secular and open society should give our government and many of the freedom and liberty-loving people around the world pause. No need to get hysterical just yet, but watch and wait. I don't see much good coming out of this development...

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